Aerosols drive monsoon rainfall spatial modulations over the Indian subcontinent: anthropogenic and dust aerosols impact, mechanism, and control
Abstract. Spatial modulations in monsoon rainfall over the Indian subcontinent, characterized by persistent weakening and strengthening patterns, are yet to be understood in the context of the role of spatial heterogeneity in aerosol species (anthropogenic and dust) radiative perturbations, driving mechanisms, and control. Current inaccuracies in modelling the aerosol species burden in this region have posed challenges to fully addressing these complexities. Here, we successfully simulate for the first time the aerosol-driven impact on monsoon rainfall spatial modulations, adequately accounting for aerosol distributions in a fine-resolved (25×25 km2) regional climate model. The modelled aerosol-induced spatial modulations align consistently with the measured departures in monsoon rainfall. The aerosol-induced weakening of the rainfall (30 %–50 %) over most of the Indian subcontinent, with a maximum deficiency over the eastern coast (−48 mm), is primarily driven by changes in regional wind dynamics induced by anthropogenic aerosol all-sky radiative forcing. The rainfall increase (>50 %) is strengthened by all-sky radiative warming with dust aerosols over most of central/northwestern India and the western coast. Abatement of anthropogenic aerosols can largely mitigate the rainfall deficiency, but by 30 % to 40 % only over the eastern coast; thereby also identifying areas of augmented rainfall excessiveness (e.g., Andhra Pradesh/Gujarat) or their mitigation (e.g., Kerala/northeastern India) driven by anthropogenic aerosol control. These insights are crucial for developing effective water management strategies in the region.